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  • Writer's pictureMahdi Farahikia

United Need a Come-back After a Setback - EPL Match Week 27 Preview

The biggest loser of last weekend's EPL was undoubtedly Manchester United, suffering their worst defeat in the league. Following that devasting setback, Erik Ten Hag's men must make a come-back statement. The title race between Arsenal and City is heating up, and Liverpool seek to find a place in the top four with a win against Bournemouth. Here is EPL Match Week 27 Preview. (All times are in EST. Game times are subject to change by EPL without prior notice.)

Bournemouth vs. Liverpool (03/11/2023 07:30 AM):

Bournemouth's last head-on with Liverpool was their worst nightmare this season; they lost that game by nine goals at Anfield. Moreover, Liverpool showed the same savage spirit as they thrashed their arch-rivals, Man United, by seven goals last weekend. It's safe to say if that were Liverpool's come-back statement, no one would want to get close to Klopp's men.

The rock-bottom Bournemouth will have to brace themselves for a visit by the Reds. A quick look at the statistics suggests this will be a one-sided match. Bournemouth have lost all the last five head-to-heads with Liverpool, scoring once and losing 21 goals. Although Bournemouth shocked Arsenal last weekend, they won't probably be able to pull another stun. They will hope not to lose like the reverse fixture.

FiveThirtyEight: BOU: 14%, LIV: 69%, Draw: 17%

Odds Shark: BOU: +600, LIV: -225, Draw: +400

Everton vs. Brentford (03/11/2023 10:00 AM):

Everton's performance against Forest showed signs of improvement despite giving in to a draw after falling ahead twice. Forest have been enjoying a long unbeaten record at home since September. The trouble is Everton have never beaten Brentford in EPL history. They have met three times, two of which went for Brentford, and their last game ended in a draw. Brentford beat Fulham on Monday but suffered two goals in that match.

Playing in Goodison Park used to be a nightmare, and it may still trouble visiting teams, but that was not an issue for Aston Villa, who enjoyed a 2-0 victory there a couple of weeks ago. This is a battle of different ambitions. Everton want to get out of the relegation zone, while Brentford wish to obtain a seat in European competition next year. Given the statistics and both teams' forms, this one will likely go for Brentford.

FiveThirtyEight: EVE: 33%, BRE: 42%, Draw: 25%

Odds Shark: EVE: +170, BRE: +180, Draw: +220

Leeds vs. Brighton (03/11/2023 10:00 AM):

These sides have met five times in the entire EPL history, none of which has ended in a Leeds win. The hosts don't like to be reminded of the history, but they may take solace in that they have been able to hold Brighton to two draws lately, both at home and away. However, they lost to Everton on the road, and despite earning a point at Old Trafford, they lost the home game to Red Devils. Leeds' form isn't great, as they are out of the relegation zone only thanks to a better goal difference than Everton.

Brighton beat West Ham in style last week, scoring four goals, but they have only scored one goal in each of the other four recent games in all competitions. Surprisingly, though, the best-scoring player between these sides is Leed's Rodrigo. Historically, goals have been scarce in the head-ons between Leeds and Brighton, and this trend will continue. A draw is predictable, followed by a narrow Brighton victory.

FiveThirtyEight: LEE: 26%, BRI: 51%, Draw: 23%

Odds Shark: LEE: +265, BRI: +100, Draw: +265

Leicester vs. Chelsea (03/11/2023 10:00 AM):

Chelsea finally got their long-awaited victory against Leeds as Leicester suffered a one-goal defeat against Southampton. Leicester have lost three of their last five EPL matches but beat Spurs away and Villa at home. While Chelsea came out victorious from this fixture last season, their current form is by no means comparable to how they played then.

Both teams have sub-par scoring statistics. In fact, Leicester's scoring goals average of 1.44 is better than Chelsea's 0.96, suggesting both teams have trouble finding the back of the net. On the other hand, Leicester have lost, on average, 1.72 goals per game compared to Chelsea's one goal conceded per game. In addition, both managers are in the hot seats because of their team's poor performance. Potter probably senses the pressure more than Rogers. This game will end up in a draw with very few goals. A close victory for Leicester is also predictable.

FiveThirtyEight: LEI: 34%, CHE: 39%, Draw: 27%

Odds Shark: LEI: +260, CHE: +100, Draw: +260

Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest (03/11/2023 10:00 AM):

It may sound surprising, but Forest have been victorious against Spurs more than losing to them. But these statistics date back to before the year 2000. Tottenham beat Forest in the reverse fixture this season. Last weekend, Spurs lost (shockingly) to Wolves, while Forest managed to earn a draw after falling behind Everton twice at home.

Spurs have had good results in their last two home games against Chelsea and West Ham, beating both by two goals and keeping a clean sheet. Forest have struggled on the road, and this trend will likely continue. The question is whether they can find the net on the away ground. It may be difficult.

FiveThirtyEight: TOT: 70%, NFO: 11%, Draw: 19%

Odds Shark: TOT: -225, NFO: +600, Draw: +360

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City (03/11/2023 12:30 PM):

Winless in their last five matches, Palace are up for a big challenge against the champions. They have scored only three goals in their previous five games, whereas goals keep coming for City - sixty-six for City vs. twenty-one for Palace. That said, Viera's men held Liverpool to a draw at Selhurst Park. With Zaha back, Palace's offensive line looks more threatening, but that may not match City's current form. Sorry, Viera! You are likely going to lose this one.

FiveThirtyEight: CRY: 10%, MCI: 72%, Draw: 18%

Odds Shark: CRY: +750, MCI: -300, Draw: +420

Fulham vs. Arsenal (03/12/2023 10:00 AM):

Five points clear from the closest rival, Arsenal are sitting comfortably at the top of the table and are favorites to win the title. Nothing can explain their form better than their emotional come-back against Bournemouth last weekend. Fulham are three points from fifth-place Liverpool, hoping to get a spot in European competition next year, but they have played one more game than Liverpool and thee more than Brighton, who are just a point behind.

In contrast to Arsenal's 3-2 victory last week, Fulham lost their match against Brentford 3-2 while maintaining more than 60% of the ball possession. They haven't beaten the Gunners in any of the previous five head-ons, and they may not be up for the task against this Arsenal to break that record. Arsenal will very likely win this one.

FiveThirtyEight: FUL: 18%, ARS: 61%, Draw: 21%

Odds Shark: FUL: +440, ARS: -170, Draw: +320

Manchester United vs. Southampton (03/12/2023 10:00 AM):

Oh, boy! Just when some thought United could chase the title, they reminded all of their recent shambolic past as they were humiliated by Liverpool. No one saw a 7-0 defeat, United's worst loss in EPL history. Coming from that shock, Ten Hag's men must win this game - not for the title race (no chance of winning that) but to keep face. Southampton's ambitions to get out of the relegation zone are apparent, but the Red Devils' incentive to put the Liverpool game behind them is much greater. I reckon, Ten Hag's men will come to Old Trafford to make a statement, and they will do that with a win in this match.

FiveThirtyEight: MUN: 68%, SOU: 13%, Draw: 19%

Odds Shark: MUN: -275, SOU: +700, Draw: +420

West Ham vs. Aston Villa (03/12/2023 10:00 AM):

Home or away, West Ham have been Villa's nightmare in the last five encounters between these two sides. However, the margin between them has been only one goal in the previous two times. Hammers' most recent win was over Nottingham Forest at home, but their 4-0 victory over Forest was soon canceled by a 4-0 defeat against Brighton away. On the other hand, Aston Villa have enjoyed two wins against Everton away and Palace at home.

Both teams have struggled to score goals, while their defensive lines can't keep the balls out, as they have negative goal differences. The question is whether Villa can defeat the struggling West Ham or whether history will repeat itself. Historically, both teams are pretty even, which explains the low margins between them recently. As much as West Ham are in crisis, they have the advantage of playing at home, which should earn them a draw against Emery's team.

FiveThirtyEight: WHU: 47%, AVL: 27%, Draw: 27%

Odds Shark: WHU: +120, AVL: +230, Draw: +240

Newcastle vs. Wolves (03/12/2023 12:30 PM):

Let's face it; Almiron's magic has been nonexistent lately, and Newcastle's form has declined. They have been winless over the last five weeks and scored only two goals. As a result, they have fallen from the top four to sixth place. Wolves beat Spurs at home last week but lost to Bournemouth. However, they earned one point against Fulham on the road, sitting five points above the relegation zone in thirteenth place, playing one game more than Leeds and West Ham.

The statistics of the last five head-to-heads between these sides have been even, too, as they shared the points three times, and each side won once. In fact, ten of the fifteen games they have played against each other in EPL history have ended in a draw. Considering Newcastle's form and historical background, this one will probably end in a tie with a slight chance for a Newcastle win.

FiveThirtyEight: NEW: 63%, WOL: 13%, Draw: 24%

Odds Shark: NEW: -150, WOL: +420, Draw: +290

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