The Most Likely College Football Playoff Scenario
There has been a lot of up-roar after the College Football Playoff Committee starting releasing its rankings in week 10 of this season. I understand that it can be difficult to please everyone with a rankings system, but the committee has made some fan-bases very upset. I’ll be breaking down the CFP rankings for week 11, as well as who I think will make it to the playoff.
Let’s start off with Michigan being ranked over Michigan State. This one has a lot of people confused because Michigan State beat Michigan and then lost to Purdue, meaning both teams have an 8-1 record. The committee chose to rank Michigan at 6 and Michigan State at 7 due to Michigan’s consistency and statistical advantage on both sides of the ball.
However, a head-to-head win is also keeping Oregon ranked ahead of Ohio State in the rankings, which weakens the committee’s argument of ranking Michigan ahead of Michigan State. Multiple factors impact the rankings for the College Football Playoff, but sometimes it just doesn’t make sense.
Looking forward a couple weeks to the end of the season, there are 4 teams that I believe have what it takes to make it to the College Football Playoff. In this order: Georgia, Alabama (only because the committee is bias), Ohio State and Cincinnati.
ESPN claims that the statistical likelihood of those 4 teams making it in the playoff is 6%, but I believe that these are the most elite college football teams in the country right now.
Georgia faces off against Charleston Southern next week and then Georgia State and Tennessee the weeks after. All three of those teams under-producing and un-ranked teams. The Bulldogs will finish the season in the driver’s seat of both the AP Poll and CFP rankings.
Alabama will face New Mexico State, Arkansas and Auburn in the final weeks the season. The Iron Bowl will determine the Crimson Tide’s fate, but Nick Saban is not losing that game, despite traveling to Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Ohio State by far has the most difficult road to the College Football Playoff, as they will match up with Purdue next week, who is hot after a huge upset over Michigan State, Michigan the week after and Michigan State to end the season. The Buckeyes had a tough week against Oregon back in week 2, but Ohio State has since produced the number 2 ranked offense in college football currently, and they have what it takes to win out and jump ahead in the rankings.
Cincinnati also meets 3 un-ranked teams in South Florida, East Carolina and Southern Methodist. If the Bearcats can keep their foot on the gas I believe they can over take the fourth spot in the CFP rankings by the end of the season.